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安倍演讲暴露日美同盟瓶颈


As addresses by foreign leaders go, Shinzo Abe’s was less than rousing. Bibi Netanyahu got more ovations per paragraph than Mr Abe’s entire speech. But the Japanese prime minister’s agenda has a higher chance of success. His speech — the first by a Japanese leader to both houses of Congress — had two explicit aims. The first was to talk up the US military rebalancing to Asia. The second was to boost chances of a conclusion to theTrans-Pacific Partnership. To judge by what he said, Mr Abe is making more progress on the military dimension. He offered among the most robust endorsements by any Asian leader of Barack Obama’s “pivot to Asia”.

就外国领导人发表的演讲而言,安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)的演讲不那么富有煽动力。本雅明•内塔尼亚胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)一段话赢得的欢呼,就比安倍整篇演讲赢得的欢呼还多。但这位日本首相的议程有着更高的成功几率。他的演讲——这是日本领导人首次对美国国会参众两院联席会议发表演讲——有两个明确目标。首先是高度评价美国在军事上重新向亚洲倾斜的战略。其次是提高《跨太平洋伙伴关系》(Trans-Pacific Partnership,简称TPP)达成的机会。从安倍演讲的内容看,他在军事方面取得了更多进展。他对巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的重返亚洲战略给予了亚洲各国领导人中最有力的肯定。
安倍演讲暴露日美同盟瓶颈

Though Mr Abe never said “China” or “containment”, strengthening the US-Japan hedge against a rising China was his implicit theme. Yet he was far more specific on the military details of how that would be accomplished. Those among sceptical US lawmakers looking for detailed pledges from Japan on dismantling barriers to American beef, rice or vehicles would have been disappointed. Mr Abe added nothing to the vague pledges he and Mr Obama used in their White House press conference on Tuesday. There had been a hope that Mr Abe’s US trip would push the TPP talks towards a clinching moment. His speech will only add to the concern that we are still awaiting breakthroughs on TPP. Mr Abe’s most notable comment was a veiled reference to China when he said the 12-nation deal should build a market “free from the arbitrary intentions of any nation”.

虽然安倍只字未提“中国”或者“遏制”,但是加强美日同盟以抗衡正在崛起的中国是他在字里行间的主题。他在如何实现这一点的军事细节问题上具体得多。不过,一些满腹狐疑、期待从日本那里得到消除针对美国牛肉、大米或汽车的贸易壁垒的具体承诺的美国议员肯定会失望。除了他和奥巴马周二在白宫举行的记者会上做出的含糊承诺外,安倍没有做出任何新的承诺。此前有人希望,安倍访美之行将推动TPP谈判迈向敲定时刻。他的演讲只会加剧外界的一种担忧,即我们仍在等待TPP谈判取得突破。安倍就TPP发表的最值得一提的言论是他含蓄提到中国,他表示,这个12国之间的协定应当构建一个“不受任何国家武断意图支配”的市场。
Mr Abe was far more direct about the demand for more US military hardware than he was about its goods and services. In this respect, he was continuing in the tradition of his predecessors. Yet there was a far more militaristic tinge to his narrative. Japan, he said, would support America’s Asia rebalancing “first, last and throughout”. He set out in detail his efforts to water down the US-framed Japanese constitution to permit its self-defence forces a more overt role. Japan would build a new “credible deterrence” that would enable it to co-operate more fully with US forces in the region. It would pump money into an upgrade of the US base in Guam (more than $2bn). Tokyo was also deepening military ties with India and Australia, which are the two of the largest bulwarks against China’s creeping expansionism. He also set out his principles on the “state of Asian waters” — a response to Beijing’s hyperactivity in the South China Sea.
相比美国的产品和服务,安倍在谈到需要更多美国的军事装备时要直接得多。他在这方面继承了几位前任的传统。然而他的叙述带有浓厚得多的穷兵黩武色彩。他表示,日本将“身先士卒、坚持到最后并且全程”支持美国在军事上重返亚洲。他详细介绍了他淡化美国确定框架的日本和平宪法的努力,目的是让日本自卫队扮演更加高调的角色。日本将打造新的“可信威慑”,使其能够在该地区与美军展开更全面合作。日本将向关岛美军基地的升级改造提供更多资金(超过20亿美元)。东京方面还在深化与印度和澳大利亚的军事关系,这两个国家是抵御中国蚕食式扩张主义的两大壁垒。他还阐述了他对“亚洲水域现状”的原则,这是对中国在南中国海活跃行为的回应。

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